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KMID : 0380420180420030099
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Journal of Prventive Veterinary Medicine
2018 Volume.42 No. 3 p.99 ~ p.106
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Simulation modelling to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies during the 2010/11 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the city of Andong, Republic of Korea
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Kim Eu-Tteum
Pak Son-Il
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Abstract
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A simulation model of the 2010/11 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the city of Andong, Republic of Korea was constructed to evaluate the epidemiologic effectiveness of FMD-control strategies. Seven FMD-control strategies were evaluated with respect to a number of epidemiologic indicators relating to the outbreak, including the number of infected animals, number of infected farms, and epidemic duration. The FMD-control strategies in the model consisted of pre-emptive slaughtering, movement restriction, and vaccination; however, levels of each control option differed. The constructed model was not perfectly representative of the 2010/11 FMD epidemic, although it was considered to mimic the actual FMD epidemic in its prediction of two outcomes: the median number of simulated FMD-detected farms was 294 (range 207?515), which was close to the number of farms detected (299) during the actual FMD epidemic (x2=87.239, df=98, p = 0.774); and the simulated epidemic curve was visually similar to the actual epidemic curve of the 2010/11 FMD epidemic. The effectiveness evaluation of simulated FMD-control strategies emphasized the amount the FMD outbreak size could have increased if the radius of the pre-emptive slaughtering area or the duration of movement restriction were decreased.
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KEYWORD
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Foot-and-mouth disease, InterSpread Plus, Republic of Korea, simulation modelling
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